5/30/2023 0 Comments The probability of miracles![]() ![]() This misperception leads us to grossly underestimate the probability of an event: we think something is incredibly unlikely, when it's actually very likely, perhaps almost certain. ![]() Sometimes, though, when there are really many opportunities, it can look as if there are only relatively few. This law says that given enough opportunities, we should expect a specified event to happen, no matter how unlikely it may be at each opportunity. One of the key strands of the principle is the law of truly large numbers. In fact, we should expect coincidences to happen. Hand.Ī set of mathematical laws that I call the Improbability Principle tells us that we should not be surprised by coincidences. Beck (Germany), Companhia das Letras (Brazil), Grupa Wydawnicza Foksal (Poland), Locus Publishing Co. Hand, by arrangement with Scientific American/Farrar, Straus and Giroux, LLC (North America), Transworld (UK), Ambo|Anthos (Holland), C.H. ![]() Adapted from The Improbabilty Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day, by David J. ![]()
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